SpaceX shares dropped over 4% on September 23, just a day before a lockup expiration that made approximately 328 million shares available for trading.
This selling pressure arrives right ahead of Starship Flight 14, which marks the spacecraft’s inaugural journey into Earth orbit and its first commercial operation.
Starship Flight 14 Targets Orbit With Paying Cargo
Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk announced on September 24 that the firm is gearing up for a Monday launch scheduled for September 28. Leading up to this, the launch tower’s mechanical arms successfully positioned Ship 41 atop Super Heavy Booster 21.
Previous Starship tests intentionally remained on suborbital trajectories. SpaceX states that this fully assembled, 124-meter vehicle will target an orbit approximately 275 kilometers above the planet. The mission is designed to last nearly 10 hours and complete roughly six orbits around Earth.
In place of dummy mass, the spacecraft will transport 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Bret Johnsen, the Chief Financial Officer, characterized this flight as the rocket’s initial revenue-generating endeavor.
Despite these milestones, SpaceX will forgo a mechanical tower catch. Both rocket stages are expendable, meaning the booster will execute a splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. The ship will conclude its flight via a deorbit burn, bringing it down into the Pacific Ocean west of Chile.
Why SpaceX Stock Faces Selling Pressure
Initial announcements regarding this orbital mission pushed share values past $150 during mid-September. Since then, an influx of newly available shares has created downward pressure on the stock. Rather than releasing all insider shares simultaneously, SpaceX staggers the supply, with the first tranche having unlocked in August.
An earlier tranche became available on September 9, which coincided with a 3.9% decline in the stock’s value that same day.
Nevertheless, the expiration does not mandate any selling by shareholders. The actual market effect relies entirely on the volume of insiders who choose to liquidate their positions. Additional tranches are planned for release incrementally through June 2027.
Regarding fundamentals, Wall Street views Flight 14 as a crucial validation test. Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, maintains a Buy recommendation alongside a $300 price target, which suggests roughly 99% potential upside. He argues that the broader market currently undervalues the company’s initiatives in artificial intelligence and orbital computing.
A successful orbital insertion and satellite deployment would provide vital commercial validation for Starship. Until then, SpaceX stock remains balanced between its ongoing launch achievements and an expanding volume of tradeable shares.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did SpaceX stock fall on September 23?
The stock dropped more than 4% a day before a lockup expiration freed approximately 328 million shares for trading, creating potential selling pressure.
What is significant about Starship Flight 14?
Flight 14 is Starship’s first planned trip into Earth orbit, its first revenue-generating mission, and will carry 26 Starlink V3 satellites instead of dummy mass.
Will SpaceX attempt a tower catch for Flight 14?
No, SpaceX will not attempt a tower catch. Both stages are expendable, with the booster splashing down in the Gulf of Mexico and the ship performing a deorbit burn into the Pacific west of Chile.
What is Wall Street’s outlook on SpaceX stock?
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas holds a Buy rating and a $300 price target, indicating about 99% upside, believing the market underprices SpaceX’s AI and orbital computing plans.
