Gold futures have suffered more sharp one-day drops in 2026 than in any year since the global financial crisis.
Rising Treasury yields have driven the latest bout of selling, and The Kobeissi Letter says the year could end as gold’s most volatile in over 4 decades.
How Rising Yields Knocked Gold Off Balance
Bespoke Investment Group data, shared by The Kobeissi Letter, counts 7 daily declines of 3.5% or more so far this year. That is the highest count since 2008 and more than double 2025’s 3.
With 3 trading months left, Kobeissi says 2026 is on course for gold’s most volatile year since 1982.
“The bond market has catalyzing some of gold’s most volatile conditions in history,” the firm said.
Monday brought another steep drop. Spot gold fell as much as 4% intraday to its lowest since August 5, Reuters reported.
Kobeissi put the day’s decline at 3.4%. According to the analysts, this marked “ one of the rarest single-day declines of the last two decades.” The post also measured the move’s Z-score at -2.90, a drop expected about once every 2 years.
The decline came as yields continue to surge. The 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since June 2007. Because gold pays no interest, higher yields raise the cost of holding it.
The pressure kept building. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.60%, its highest level since 2002.
Kobeissi noted that bond markets now price 4 more quarter-point Fed hikes by June 2027, on top of September’s increase. Nine months ago, traders expected at least 100 basis points of cuts over the same period.
From War Volatility to Forecast Cuts
Gold’s slide traces back to February 28, when the US and Israel struck Iran and gold briefly surged.
However, rising oil prices soon lifted inflation risks and cut hopes for Fed easing. By the end of June 23, spot gold had lost more than 25%.
Kobeissi also noted futures are down 5.4% this year, on track for their first annual loss since 2022. Banks have trimmed their targets.
Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2026 fair value to $4,650. JPMorgan projects $4,500 for the fourth quarter. Goldman still kept a $5,400 target for end-2027. Still, Goldman’s Lina Thomas flagged the downside.
“A significantly more hawkish Fed path could generate a sharper-than-usual correction,” Thomas said.
Wednesday’s PCE inflation data and Friday’s payrolls report will show whether October hike bets firm up.
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