Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin (BTC) price target to $113,000 from $82,000, betting that exchange-traded fund (ETF) buyers keep returning. Its Ethereum (ETH) forecast rose to $3,028, leaving far less room above the current price.
Fund flows turned against that bet the same day. US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $148.69 million on September 30, the date of Citi’s note.
Why Did Citi Reverse Its June Cut So Quickly?
Citi analyst Alex Saunders tied the revision to improvement across every input the bank tracks.
“The increase draws from all three components of our process: activity, macro, and ETF flows. Debasement fears alongside SEC agency rulemaking, spurred paradoxically by the failed Clarity Act, helped crypto reclaim technical levels,” Saunders said.
The flow assumption shows how far the outlook swung. Citi’s June 30 note, reported by Reuters, cut its 12-month ETF inflow estimate to zero from $10 billion.
That note also lowered Bitcoin to $82,000 from $112,000 and Ethereum to $2,240 from $3,175. At the time, BTC traded near $59,000 and ETH near $1,600.
Citi now expects $5 billion of inflows over 12 months, arriving as advisers and brokerages raise Bitcoin allocations gradually.
Saunders also pointed to the charts, saying ETF inflows resumed as prices broke above their 200-day moving averages. Bitcoin logged a September 8 golden cross, when its 50-day average rose above the 200-day line.
Does Ethereum’s Target Leave Room After a 71% Rally?
Bitcoin and Ethereum have gained 42.7% and 70.8% in Q3, Coinglass data showed. Their year-to-date losses have narrowed to about 3% and 8.4%. Bitcoin also posted its first all-green third quarter on record.
BTC traded at $84,591 at press time, up 1.18% over 24 hours, per BeInCrypto Markets data. Citi’s target sits about 34% higher.
It also tops the $100,000 call for 2027 from VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel. Demand heading into October looks thinner, though.
Bitcoin ETF demand cooled late in September, while CryptoQuant estimates apparent spot demand shrank by 170,000 BTC in 30 days.
ETH traded at $2,699.46, up 0.34% on the day, so the new forecast implies only about 12% upside. Even the raised figure stays below the $3,175 target Citi held before June 30.
The supply factors remain supportive, though. Santiment data last week put just 3.49% of ETH supply on exchanges, leaving fewer coins to sell. Ethereum ETFs, however, ended a 7-day inflow streak on September 29.
Citi’s June cut and latest upgrade both moved with its ETF flow assumption. Fund data through the Fed’s October 27 to 28 meeting should show whether that inflow assumption holds up.
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