Netflix stock trades near $68, roughly half its June 2025 record of $134. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos admitted on Thursday that the streamer is growing more slowly than he wants.
Sarandos blames the slowdown largely on Netflix’s own spending choices. However, a growing camp of investors sees a bigger threat in rivals with far deeper pockets.
Why is Netflix Stock Dropping?
Speaking at Bloomberg’s Screentime event in Los Angeles, Sarandos named live programming as a key drag on growth.
“Overall, we’re not growing as fast as I want us to… We are, though, also doing things that create a lot of headwind.”
Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix, via Yahoo
Live events absorb about 5% of Netflix’s $20 billion annual content budget. Yet they generate only around 1% of total viewing hours.
Overall viewership rose just 2% year over year in the first half of 2026.
Not everyone accepts that explanation. Investor Stock Market Nerd argued that live content attracts a disproportionate share of new, engaged members, which should offset the cost.
Can a Pure-Play Streamer Outspend Big Tech?
Instead, the investor blames competition from Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet. These giants can fund streaming libraries without needing them to earn much profit.
Amazon alone is valued near $3 trillion, roughly 10 times Netflix’s $285 billion market cap.
Viewing data supports the concern. YouTube captured a record 14.2% of US TV viewing in July, according to TheStreet.
By contrast, Netflix held 7.9% in June, per Nielsen’s last reading before a methodology change.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is split. Wells Fargo cut Netflix to underweight on September 18 with a $57 target, while HSBC moved to hold.
Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy on September 30, setting a $95 target and citing 18% Asia-Pacific revenue growth.
Guidance explains the caution. Netflix’s next-quarter revenue growth forecasts slipped from 15% to 13% to 12% across 2026, according to Fool.
Netflix Stock Price Outlook
Since the June 2025 record, NFLX has printed lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart. It now tests the November 2021 peak near $68.
Just below sits the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $61.29, a level traders use to gauge pullback depth. Together, they form a support band.
Overhead, the lost 0.382 Fibonacci level at $89.10 now acts as resistance. The falling 50-week moving average sits near the same zone.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bullish divergence. The stock is heading towards oversold levels. Price set lower lows in February and July, while RSI set higher lows.
A third drive would likely require a dip below the $65.08 July low. A sustained break under $61. If that happens, Netflix Stock could be heading towards $41.
Netflix is down about 27% this year, even as the S&P 500 set a record high in August. The October 20 report may decide whether investors still value a pure-play streamer competing against companies that treat content as a side business.
