Bitcoin (BTC) enters a historically strong month facing four pressures. Thin liquidity, weaker ETF demand, the Iran war, and a Mt. Gox deadline weigh on it.
The largest cryptocurrency has closed higher in 10 of the last 13 Octobers, with a median gain of 12.73%, Coinglass data shows. So far this month, BTC is up 1.98%
Stablecoin Supply Is Refilling But Slowly
Analyst Darkfost said too little liquidity is reaching the crypto market. The stablecoin market cap has lost $14 billion since May, pointing to sizable outflows.
Supply has recovered $4 billion since September, lifting the total to about $270 billion. Still, Darkfost called the rebound too timid to push Bitcoin to new highs.
“Even though the trend now appears to be reversing, it remains too timid, and more will be needed to push Bitcoin toward new highs,” he wrote.
Large holders are adding capital, though cautiously. Wallets sending over $1 million in stablecoins to Binance lifted their 30-day inflows to $30.5 billion. A little over a month earlier, the figure stood at $21.7 billion.
That marks a rise of over 40%. However, the same group sent more than $61 billion at its October 2025 peak, nearly double the current level.
“This behavior is probably torn between Bitcoin’s seasonality, with a highly anticipated October, and an environment marked by conflict, inflation, and the relentless rise in bond yields,” the analyst added.
ETF Buyers Have Stepped Back
Institutional demand has cooled as well. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $998.95 million on September 21, their largest daily inflow in almost a year.
Inflows then shrank for 5 straight sessions, slipping to $31.07 million by September 28. On September 30, the funds posted $148.69 million in net outflows, ending a 9-day inflow streak, BeInCrypto reported.
Flows returned to positive territory on October 1, with $102.67 million in net inflows, SoSoValue data shows. However, the funds took in only $51.25 million across the 4 sessions from September 28 to October 1. In the prior week, they drew $2.39 billion.
Trading activity has thinned too. Daily value traded across the 12 funds fell from $4.57 billion on September 21 to $1.97 billion on October 1.
Iran War Headlines Whip Bitcoin Both Ways
The conflict Darkfost flagged has already moved Bitcoin’s price. On October 2, BTC rallied toward $87,000 before a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz erased the gain.
Oil prices barely moved on the news, while crypto markets reacted sharply. That strike marked the sixth tanker attack in a week. Meanwhile, Washington has sent 2 more Patriot missile batteries to protect Saudi and Qatari energy sites, Axios reported. The US is also sending more warships and troops ahead of a possible return to war.
Meanwhile, Iran said the strait stays closed until the US meets 7 conditions from a June deal. Because Bitcoin trades around the clock, it absorbs weekend war news before stocks and oil reopen.
The pressure could build later in the month. US officials told The Wall Street Journal that Trump expects to resume bombing Iran after the November 3 midterms.
Peace signals have moved Bitcoin the other way. It climbed past $81,000 when Trump weighed ending the war. With Hormuz still shut, each new strike or ceasefire signal could swing BTC in either direction.
Mt. Gox Faces Its October 31 Deadline
The final pressure lands at month-end. Mt. Gox’s labeled wallets held 34,387.51 BTC, worth $2.88 billion, as of the latest data from Arkham.
Under the current court-approved deadline, the trustee must finish creditor repayments by October 31. Last year, it announced the extension on October 27, 2025, just 4 days before the cutoff.
That pattern leaves 2 outcomes. Another extension would keep the coins off the market, while distributions could hand creditors BTC they may sell.
Seasonality has also slipped before. Bitcoin fell 3.69% in October 2025, its first losing October since 2018. ETF flows and stablecoin supply will show whether fresh capital arrives before the Mt. Gox decision.
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