The S&P 500 bull market turns 4 on Monday, up 119% to a record from its October 2022 low. Six past runs kept going after turning 4, though four bear markets later pushed the index below its birthday level.
However, this run came close to ending in 2025. The index fell 18.9% on a closing basis, short of the 20% drop that conventionally ends a bull market.
Where Does the Current S&P 500 Bull Market Stand Against Past Ones?
The index closed at a record 7,818.93 on Oct. 6. That is about 119% above its 3,577.03 close on Oct. 12, 2022, when the run began.
Motley Fool’s Daniel Sparks identified the six runs using dates from investment research firm Yardeni Research.
Historically, the 1957 run was the shortest-lived after age 4, ending about seven weeks later. The 1982 and 2002 runs each lasted to about age 5.
In contrast, the 2009 run stretched nearly 11 years, and the 1987 run lasted more than 12.
After turning 4, the 1987 run about quadrupled and the 2009 run more than doubled, Sparks calculated. The 1957 and 2002 runs added about 7% and 16%, respectively, before peaking.
Does Surviving Age 4 Make a Bull Market a Safe Entry Point?
Still, bear markets followed four of the six and took the index below its birthday level, barely so in 1974.
Investors who bought in October 2006 did so about a year before the 2002 run peaked. They were down about 50% at the March 2009 low, excluding dividends.
Using data from financial data provider FactSet, Sparks calculated the index trades at about 26 times past-year earnings. That exceeds its 10-year average of 23.6.
On the other hand, earnings expected over the next 12 months put the index near its 10-year average.
Sparks argues the calendar offers little guide to a peak, though he expects a bear market eventually.
The milestone itself depends on method. Some investors date a new bull market from April 2025, because intraday losses topped 20%. On that count, this run is roughly 18 months old.
