Despite the market dip and liquidations over the past week, Bitcoin has seemingly entered a bull market, as the analysis of its 50-week moving average shows.
BloFin Research argues that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle is gradually losing strength. Future rallies could deliver smaller gains, followed by shorter and less severe downturns.
Why Bitcoin’s Bear Market May Already Be Over
The strongest evidence comes from Bitcoin’s recovery above its 50-week moving average, a technical indicator that previously signaled bull-market transitions in 2015, 2019 and 2023.
Bitcoin reclaimed this level near $78,800 in September. It subsequently traded above $86,000 in early October.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which compares its current market value with the average price investors paid for their coins, moved above its annual average.
As of October 11, MVRV stood near 1.54, above its 365-day average of 1.44. This suggests the longer-term recovery remains intact despite recent selling.
It means Bitcoin’s market strength is improving, a signal that has previously appeared during the early stages of bull markets.
Bitcoin’s Historic Crashes Are Getting Smaller
BloFin’s most significant finding concerns the declining severity of Bitcoin’s market cycles.
Bitcoin fell approximately 53% from its October 2025 peak of $124,824 to $58,525 in June 2026.
Previous bear markets were considerably worse:
| Bear market | Peak-to-trough decline |
| 2013–2015 | 84.5% |
| 2017–2018 | 83.8% |
| 2021–2022 | 76.7% |
| 2025–2026 | 53% |
Bull-market gains have also narrowed. Bitcoin’s trough-to-peak returns have declined from roughly 530 times in its earliest cycle to eight times in the most recent one.
If June remains the bottom, the latest bear market lasted approximately eight months, compared with 12–13 months historically.
Institutional Investors Are Changing Bitcoin’s Cycle
BloFin Research attributes much of this change to longer-term ownership. In September, approximately 16.64 million BTC, or 83% of circulating supply, had remained unmoved for at least 155 days.
Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs held around 1.3 million BTC on October 2. Public companies owned another 1.29 million BTC.
Together, ETFs and corporate treasuries controlled approximately 13% of circulating Bitcoin.
However, last week’s $679 million ETF outflow shows that institutional demand can still weaken sharply during market stress.
What Happens to Bitcoin’s New Bull Market?
Bitcoin was trading around $83,000 on October 11, still above the September moving-average breakout level and well above its June low.
The four-year cycle also remains visible. Bitcoin peaked roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, consistent with historical patterns.
For traders, a sustained move below the current 50-week moving average would weaken the bullish signal. A break beneath $58,525 would challenge the proposed cycle bottom.
For now, Bitcoin’s longer-term recovery indicators remain positive. The recent ETF withdrawals show why the transition toward a more stable market could still involve sharp corrections.
