Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin could reach $1 million this cycle. He draws a parallel to the late-1990s dot-com boom to make his case.
His framework has drawn attention from traders, though Bitcoin still trades well below its prior peak.
How the Dot-Com Parallel Works
In a post on October 17, van de Poppe highlighted a chart from Rand Group. It aligns five prior Bitcoin crash bottoms along a straight line. The projection places a conservative bear case near $197,000 by 2030.
This idea rests on historical precedent. The dot-com era produced explosive gains in technology stocks before a sharp drawdown, yet the underlying infrastructure kept expanding. Van de Poppe suggests Bitcoin could follow a similar path, with a parabolic overshoot before a deep correction.
According to BeInCrypto data, Bitcoin trades near $81,000 as of mid-October 2026, giving it a market cap of roughly $1.63 trillion. That level sits roughly 36% below its all-time high of $126,080, reached on October 6, 2025.
Short-term performance has been muted, with modest gains or flat action over the past month in some readings. Longer-term returns, however, remain positive from earlier levels. That mismatch is the central tension in the debate.
Can Bitcoin Really Reach $1 Million?
Van de Poppe is not alone. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues Bitcoin could reach $1 million by taking more of the store-of-value market. That market is currently dominated by gold and government bonds.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has floated a similar target if younger investors and institutions shift from gold to Bitcoin. Such a shift could produce a roughly 10x move from recent levels.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes have also placed $1 million within reach this decade. Whether a dot-com-style overshoot materializes remains speculative, and history shows that parabolic advances often precede severe corrections.
Others warn that Bitcoin could fall instead. BeInCrypto reported that Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone said Bitcoin could drop to $10,000. That warning points in the opposite direction.
Critics point out that such forecasts often rely on repeating historical patterns, which may not hold. Investors should weigh these targets against current prices and the risk of deep drawdowns.
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