Tesla stock is down 18.16% since January 1, but ARK Invest’s model puts it near $4,400 per share in 2031. That would be nearly 12 times its October 19 close of $368.06.
ARK ties about 80% of Tesla’s 2031 enterprise value to a single business outside car sales. In its base case, ARK also sees Tesla selling 10.2 million cars in 2031, up from 1.6 million in 2025.
The Business Carrying ARK’s Forecast
That business is robotaxis, Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing service, according to ARK’s updated model.
In the base case, about 8.1 million robotaxis bring in $753 billion in net ride-hail revenue in 2031. Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, adds $212 billion from about 1 million units sold to outside buyers.
ARK’s model adds a new artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure line that drives Optimus performance. It expects Tesla’s cumulative AI infrastructure spending to reach $225 billion by 2031. That is up from about $7 billion at the end of 2025.
The model also sees total revenue reaching $1.45 trillion in 2031. Those figures update the Tesla model ARK last published in 2024.
“ARK estimates that Robotaxi will account for ~80% of Tesla’s enterprise value in 2031, down from ~90% in 2029 as presented in our previous model published in 2024. The primary reason is that we believe Optimus Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) is likely to inflect as robotaxis continue to proliferate,” ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire wrote.
How ARK’s Last Tesla Call Has Held Up
ARK’s 2024 model put Tesla at $2,600 per share in 2029 and picked 2025 as the likely robotaxi launch year.
Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025 and has since expanded to 7 cities across 3 states. Its fleet has logged more than 1 million unsupervised driverless miles in about 7 months.
Still, ARK calls Tesla’s robotaxi progress slower than expected. It partly used that pace to set about 2031 as when Optimus could reach human-level skill.
What Has to Go Right Before Tesla Stock Reaches $4,400
ARK names a slower-than-expected robotaxi ramp as the main risk to its forecast. It lists four possible causes.
- Regulatory delays, though ARK says this risk seems to be easing as robotaxis become safer than human-driven cars
- A sudden departure by Elon Musk
- A natural disaster
- A pandemic
On timing, Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. expects robotaxis to reach more cities in early to mid-2027. He sees Optimus following later that year.
ARK’s disclosure says its forecasts carry a bias toward positive results, and some or all outcomes may land substantially lower.
Tesla reports third-quarter results on October 21. Analysts tracked by Nasdaq expect earnings of $0.21 per share, down from $0.37 a year earlier. Holders can also check the call for robotaxi expansion, Optimus timing, and AI spending, the inputs ARK’s model rests on.
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