President Donald Trump said the US could strike Iran as soon as Sunday, or reach a deal instead. This comes as Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $80,546 after briefly dipping below $80,000 on Saturday.
So what happens to Bitcoin if a strike does come, or if a deal lands instead? Past instances may offer a clue.
What Past Iran Headlines Show
On October 8, Trump pledged to hold off on strikes until the November 3 midterms. Bitcoin dipped to $80,393 that day but closed at $81,754, according to TradingView data for Binance.
On October 22, a report on post-midterm US and Israeli strike plans emerged. Bitcoin fell from an October 21 high of $84,898 to $80,939, closing the day at $81,416.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost $635.49 million that day, a day after drawing $528.40 million.
As talk of a weekend strike built, Bitcoin fell to $79,220 on Saturday. It recovered to close the day at $80,888. Escalation headlines cut Bitcoin by 2% to 5% intraday, while the pledge brought no lasting rally.
Leveraged Longs Took the Hit Near $80,000
CoinGlass data shows $543.68 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $461.19 million.
The $80,000 level also matters for institutional holders. Glassnode places the cost basis of ETF and treasury-company investors between $80,000 and $81,500.
According to the firm, a daily close below $80,000 would leave the average holder at a loss. It would also bring the True Market Mean near $77,600 into view.
A weekend strike could test that line quickly.
What a Strike Could Mean When Markets Reopen
Because Bitcoin trades through the weekend, it would likely absorb the first reaction to any strike.
Past strikes offer a mixed guide. When the war began on February 28, Bitcoin fell to $63,030 but closed the day at $66,973. After the early September strikes, it dipped to $76,264, then jumped 5.08% on September 3.
Gold could also feel pressure when traditional markets reopen. Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s correlation with gold set an eight-year record in September and remains near it.
Its dollar correlation is among its most negative, so a rush into the dollar could weigh on both.
Oil adds inflation risk, with Brent at $117.30 on Friday. A strike could push it higher before the Fed decides on October 28.
A deal could cool those worries, though the October 8 pledge showed relief can be modest. Thus, Bitcoin’s response to these headlines is the signal to watch this weekend.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights
