Anthropic just officially filed for its IPO, which will make the Claude AI developer publicly traded on the stock market under the ANT ticker. But the filing reveals a massive $265.5 billion risk that most investors missed.
Anthropic must pay about $265.6 billion for computing power whether or not customers use its AI.
That is roughly 16 times its $16.3 billion in first-half revenue. That means Anthropic is already paying hundreds of billions in operating costs more than its profit.
Anthropic Has to Pay Cloud Giants for Almost 10 Years, Regardless of Its Profitability
This huge bill is reserved for cloud giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. Anthropic rents their computing power to operate Claude AI.
So, regardless of how much profit the company makes, Anthropic needs to pay:
- $114.5 billion to Google until July 2033
- $110 billion to Amazon until April 2036
- $44.9 billion to Microsoft until May 2033
These are approximate numbers. The final bills can be much higher.
Each deal requires payment regardless of actual usage. If Anthropic underspends with Google or Amazon, it pays them the difference. None can be cancelled unless the provider breaches it and fails to fix it.
What Happens If AI Demand Slows?
The risk lies in how Anthropic earns money. About 80% of first-half revenue depended on how much customers used its AI models, rather than flat subscriptions.
“Our revenue is primarily consumption-based, and much of it is not subject to long-term contractual commitments, while our compute and infrastructure commitments generally extend over multiple years.”
If revenue falls behind those payments, Anthropic says it “may be unable to satisfy these obligations.” The filing warns a default on some deals could force early repayment of nearly all its debt.
What Would Happen to Anthropic IPO Investors Then?
If Anthropic defaulted, the filing describes a chain reaction, and IPO investors would be last in line to get paid.
If a default on some deals triggered the cross-default clauses, the filing warns of:
- Several creditors moving at once to recover what they’re owed.
- Key commercial contracts being terminated.
- Enforcement actions against the company’s assets.
- Severe cash shortages.
Losing the debt and the data centers together “could impair our ability to train and deploy models, serve customers, and fund ongoing operations,” the filing says.
What it means for shareholders:
[if these risks happen], “the market price of our Class A common stock could decline, and you could lose part or all of your investment.”
Class A is the stock being sold in the IPO.
Lenders and contract counterparties get paid before shareholders. If debts are called in early and the money runs short, creditors take what’s left first. Stockholders get whatever remains, which can be nothing.
“Nobody’s disputing the business is extraordinary. The issue is who carries the risk if the spending runs ahead of the revenue. After this listing, the answer is the public,” Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory firm deVere Group, said in a statement to BeInCrypto.
Green added that a listing this size is likely to reach index funds and pensions fairly quickly. That could leave millions of savers holding shares without choosing to.
The filing doesn’t say how likely any of this is, and Anthropic had $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of June.
Notably, Anthropic has misjudged demand before, though in the other direction. It says it “significantly underestimated” past computing needs and ran short of capacity.
Why Anthropic’s Numbers Point the Other Way
The growth figures offer the counterpoint. Revenue rose 1,368% year over year in the second quarter, while computing costs grew 300%.
Anthropic also booked $974 million in operating profit that quarter, its first among the six quarters shown. It held $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of June.
Still, doubts are growing over who pays for the AI build-out. Ramp data shows a small group of heavy spenders drives most business AI budgets.
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has warned an AI chip glut could crash computing prices.
Google, Amazon, and Microsoft sit on the other side of these contracts. Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft all report quarterly earnings this week. Anthropic, listing on Nasdaq as ANT, has not yet set a price range.
Green called the listing “a referendum on the entire AI trade.” A strong debut could draw a queue of AI listings, he said, while a stumble could reset tech valuations fast.
