Gold price fell below $3,900 per ounce on October 30, its lowest level of 2026. The precious metal now sits roughly 30% below its January peak.
Hawkish Fed bets explain much of the slide, but analysts disagree on how deep the correction could go.
Why the Gold Price Keeps Falling in 2026
The latest drop puts gold on track for a second straight monthly loss. Meanwhile, the $4,000 level now acts as fragile support, after repeated tests in recent sessions.
Strong US data drives the selloff. Third-quarter GDP growth beat expectations, while September PCE inflation rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% year-on-year.
As a result, traders still see a possible Fed hike in December. That view persists even after the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% this week.
Higher oil prices, driven by Middle East supply fears, also keep real yields elevated. That raises the cost of holding gold, which pays no yield.
In addition, speculative selling and ETF outflows amplified the move.
How Low Could Gold Fall Before It Recovers?
In the short term, analysts remain cautious.
Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper warned that gold must hold support at $3,886. A sustained break could trigger a deeper correction.
JPMorgan Private Bank’s Yuxuan Tang also sees further downside risk. The bank expects Fed hikes in December and again in early 2027. That could push 10-year Treasury yields to a peak of 5.25% to 5.50%.
“Gold will find a solid bottom when rates peak,” Tang said, citing thin liquidity.
Longer-term views look brighter, though. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts shows median forecasts of $4,495 for 2026 and $4,650 for 2027. Cooper expects prices to recover as focus shifts to de-dollarization and currency debasement.
For now, traders watch $4,000 on the upside and $3,886 on the downside. The US midterms and the December Fed decision could set the next move.
