West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude touched $106.2 per barrel on Friday, its highest intraday level since mid-September. The jump followed Iran’s claim that mines struck four tankers, a day after US forces called Hormuz lanes clear.
WTI later eased to $104.1, and Brent traded near $111.9, up 9.4% from a month earlier. For energy traders, the bigger swing factor comes after the November 3 US midterms. Renewed US strikes on Iran are reportedly on the table for that window.
Two Fronts Flare Before Americans Vote
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said three tankers exploded on the southern route on Thursday. Tehran treats that route as off-limits.
Iran’s army reported a fourth vessel damaged by a mine east of the waterway. US Central Command (CENTCOM) had called Iranian mine-strike reports false and said US forces cleared the main routes. On Thursday, the IRGC rejected that position.
“Prove the claim that the Strait of Hormuz has been cleared of mines with independent evidence, not a statement,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said. “The reality of the Strait of Hormuz is determined in the air, on land and at sea, not on social media and in America’s media war rooms.”
The second front is Saudi Arabia. Iran-backed Houthis claimed six attacks on Saudi airports and oil sites, including the Ras Tanura refinery.
Those claims came days after Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman attended a meeting in Tehran focused on “peace and security in the region.”
What November 3 Could Decide for Iran and Oil
Washington is now running force and diplomacy side by side. CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper presented Iran military options to Trump on Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported.
That briefing adds to earlier reports of post-midterm Iran strike plans. Trump could still decide against action, according to the report.
Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance reportedly wrote to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei about a framework for talks. Asked whether he directed it, Trump said “No” and tied the outreach to medical supplies.
Polymarket traders still give the ceasefire an 83% chance of holding through November 3. The odds briefly slid from above 90% to near 62% before rebounding.
That contract expires on Election Day, while the reported strike window opens after it. The 83% reading therefore says little about oil’s path into mid-November.
Brent already climbed toward its yearly high last week, touching $117.42 on October 23. The World Gold Council has argued a Democratic Congress could restrict war funding, adding another post-vote variable.
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