Gold ended its worst October since the 2008 financial crisis at $3,875 an ounce on Friday. It fell 3.6% in the final session alone.
When trading resumes, recent buyers are most exposed. Investors added about 150 tonnes to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since July. Much of it now trades below cost, Saxo Bank said.
Why Saxo Bank Says the Gold Selloff May Not Be Over
Ole Hansen, Saxo’s head of commodity strategy, wrote that chart-driven sellers are in charge. Gold broke a floor near $3,970, then closed below $3,886, its October 2025 low.
Hedge funds have cut bullish gold bets for nine straight weeks, Hansen said. If more holders give up, he warned, the slide could run deeper and longer.
The stock market adds pressure. Hedge funds just made their biggest stock pullback since 2017, led by AI shares.
Market commentator Prem Soni called Friday’s drop a margin call, with brokers demanding cash from investors who bought tech stocks on credit.
“When you are over leveraged and have zero cash flow, you don’t sell what you want to sell. You sell what you can sell,” he said.
Since the Iran war began, a 10% jump in Brent crude has matched a 4% drop in gold, economist Robin Brooks wrote. Pricier oil feeds inflation and keeps US rate hikes alive. Gold pays no interest, so higher rates make it less attractive.
Who Thinks the Worst Gold Selling Is Done
Brooks wrote his note after gold slipped back below $4,000 on Friday, with talk of US strikes on Iran returning.
“An imminent return to a “hot” war will weigh on gold a bit, but downside is limited…,” he said.
Ronnie Stoeferle of asset manager Incrementum tracks how many speculators have already left. Their bullish silver bets have shrunk to 3,321 contracts from 42,756 in July 2025, he wrote.
“Ugly tape, but look under the hood.”
He added that only 10% of gold miners trade above their 200-day average, a common long-term trend line. Analyst Rashad Hajiyev called 2026 a pause before a possible run to $10,000 in 2027 or 2028.
What Decides Gold’s Next Move This Week
Americans vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday. The October jobs report follows on Friday.
A recovery above $4,000 would begin to calm the short-term picture, Hansen said.
Yet a deeper stock crash could lead the Federal Reserve to drop the two rate hikes markets still expect, Hansen said. In his view, the stock rout hurting gold now could eventually help it.
