The largest crypto hack on record hit Binance last week. Bitcoin’s (BTC) charts, however, show little sign of a broken bull market.
Three signals point that way, from the weekly close to monthly momentum. One group of investors still has reason for caution before the US midterm elections.
1. A Record Hack Met a Shallow Weekly Loss
The Binance hack on October 29 drained about $6.3 billion from 10 blockchains. Binance pledged to cover all losses and began phased withdrawals on November 1.
Even so, Bitcoin closed the week down only 2.9%, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo. Gold fell 3% over the same stretch, per Woo’s figures.
Woo contrasted this with the FTX collapse, which knocked Bitcoin down 25% in the 2022 bear market. A drop of that size failed to repeat here.
“BTC is in a bull market,” Woo said.
Ash Crypto also argues that a 20% drop is normal during a Bitcoin bull market. The hack-week loss stayed far below that threshold.
Bitcoin’s longer-term chart points in the same direction.
2. Bitcoin Keeps Closing Above Its 50-Week Average
Bitcoin posted its 7th straight weekly close above the 50-week moving average (MA), Ash Crypto noted.
The streak began in September, when Bitcoin reclaimed the average for the first time in 45 weeks. Alex Thorn, who heads firmwide research at Galaxy, tied that reclaim to past cycle bottoms at the time.
“Regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are ‘in,’” he said.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $78,307, up 0.65% over the past 24 hours, per BeInCrypto Markets. That puts it about 3.6% above the 50-week MA, which currently stands near $75,602.
A slower monthly gauge offers a third reading.
3. Monthly Momentum Held Through a Losing October
Bitcoin gained about 43% across July, August, and September, Coinglass data show. It then closed October down 7.32%, its first monthly loss since June.
That loss still left Bitcoin’s monthly momentum above a key line, according to analyst PlanB. His chart shows the 14-month relative strength index (RSI) above 50 for a 3rd straight month.
RSI measures momentum on a 0 to 100 scale. Readings above 50 mean gains have outweighed losses over the lookback period. PlanB reads the streak as the start of a new bull market.
Still, Bitcoin ETF outflows tell a weaker story than the price chart.
ETF Investors Are Still Underwater
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.33 million on October 30, the first full session after the hack. That outflow erased four days of inflows and left the week about $202 million negative.
Glassnode data place the average cost basis of US spot ETF holders near $82,308. Bitcoin sits about 4.9% below that line, leaving the average ETF buyer at a loss.
Bitcoin also remains 10.4% below its January 1 level, per Coinglass. Those levels frame the next test, which arrives with the midterm vote.
What November Could Bring After the Midterms
US voters head to the polls on November 3. Bitcoin has closed November higher in 10 of 16 years, with a median gain of 10.3%, Coinglass data show.
Midterm years split evenly, however, with two November gains and two losses. The losses came in 2018 and 2022, when Bitcoin fell 36.41% and 16.23%. Both were bear market years.
A weekly close above the 50-week MA after the vote may separate 2026 from those two years. A move back above $82,308 would put the average ETF holder back in profit. Ash Crypto’s monthly analysis marks $87,500 as resistance.
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