Wall Street analysts have largely held their S&P 500 earnings forecasts, Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni said. For 2028, they still sit near $500 per share, even after Alphabet and Intel sold off.
However, Yardeni’s own 2028 forecast is $450, about 9% below the $493 consensus he cited in an October 24 note. S&P 500 holders are exposed to profit growth that he considers too bullish.
Why Are S&P 500 Earnings Not Lifting the Index?
Yardeni made the case in an interview ahead of the US midterm elections. He said weekly consensus estimates stayed roughly flat in the week of October 26. Analysts remain strongly bullish on 2027 and 2028, he added.
Meanwhile, the index has trailed those profits, based on figures in the note. Forward earnings per share, a gauge of expected profit over 12 months, was up 31% this year. At that point, the S&P 500 had gained 11.4%.
As a result, the index’s forward price-to-earnings multiple, which prices stocks against expected profit, fell 13.5% this year. Yardeni’s 7,900 year-end target applies a multiple of 18.6 to a $425 forecast for 2027 earnings.
Analysts’ 2027 consensus of $424.56 sits almost exactly on that forecast. He cut that multiple from 19.8 in September, when he moved his earlier 8,400 target to mid-2027.
Can AI Credit Stress Break the 7,900 Call?
Estimates held through a late-October Nasdaq-100 rout that erased roughly $2 trillion of market value. Alphabet had its worst session on record, and Intel fell nearly 29% in one day.
Yardeni says bond investors are policing AI borrowers and calls the trend healthy. His note cites wider credit default swap spreads, a gauge of default risk, at Oracle and AI cloud provider CoreWeave.
In addition, he said hyperscalers, the largest cloud providers, have data-center commitments and backlogs already locked in.
Yardeni said the bonds of AI companies look better placed than their stocks. In his view, it remains unclear when the spending will produce earnings.
That leaves his 7,900 call resting on the multiple, since 2027 profits already match consensus. Falling bond yields would ease that pressure, while rising AI borrowing costs could push 2028 estimates lower first.
