US gas prices have fallen below $4 a gallon for the first time since July, AAA data show. The national average slipped to $3.98 on Tuesday, down about 17 cents in a week.
Diesel has come down more slowly and still averages $6.13, according to GasBuddy. That gap could keep inflation pressure alive as the Federal Reserve weighs its December move.
Why Diesel Is Slow to Follow Crude Lower
Cheaper crude helped pull gasoline down. Brent briefly fell below $90 a barrel on Tuesday, a first since August.
Hopes for an end to the nearly nine-month US conflict with Iran grew after Trump’s comments. Meanwhile, ING estimates Gulf crude exports have recovered to 80% to 85% of prewar levels. Seasonal patterns helped too, Bespoke Investment Group noted.
GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan says some stations in 14 states could sell gas under $3 on Thanksgiving.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show gasoline fell about 12 cents in the week to November 2. Diesel dropped only about 6 cents.
Tight supply helps explain the gap. US distillate inventories, which hold diesel and heating oil, fell to 99.3 million barrels in late October. That left them about 13% below the five-year average.
Winter will draw on those same barrels. The EIA’s October outlook sees East Coast distillate stocks staying around 20% below average this winter.
By De Haan’s figures, gasoline averages $3.95, 39 cents above its 2022 Thanksgiving record of $3.56. Diesel sits 88 cents above its $5.25 record, still above the $6 mark it first crossed in September.
Can the Fed Look Past $6 Diesel?
Diesel powers the trucks that move goods, so its costs reach consumers through freight. In September, producer prices for truck freight rose 3.8% in a single month.
On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned energy shocks may now affect inflation for longer than before the pandemic.
“…they are still quite elevated relative to the start of the year, and the ultimate effect on inflation will depend on what levels are sustained,” he said.
Traders already price a Fed rate hike on December 9, following hot US inflation data on Tuesday. CME FedWatch puts 90.9% on a quarter-point move to 4% to 4.25%.
The remaining 9.1% points to a half-point increase. Diesel near $6 may give the Fed a reason to keep that larger hike on the table.
A mild winter or a lasting Iran deal could weaken that case by easing pressure on distillate stocks.
Friday’s producer price data and this week’s EIA inventory report come next. They will show whether diesel’s grip on freight costs is loosening.
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