Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, openly acknowledged that his bearish prediction for Bitcoin fell short on Monday after the cryptocurrency decisively surpassed $85,000 and triggered a massive short squeeze.
This dramatic market reversal represents a significant pivot point for one of the most prominent bearish analysts of the current cycle.
A Public Reversal Rooted in Cycle Analysis
Cycle analysis relies on projecting Bitcoin’s path based on trends seen in historical four-year market periods. Cowen utilized this exact methodology for months, insisting that past data suggested further downside before any lasting recovery could take hold.
Back on September 8, he estimated a 65% likelihood that Bitcoin’s cycle bottom was still upcoming, leaving just a 35% probability that the low had already occurred. He frequently pointed to the realized price around $53,000 as a benchmark that previous bear markets had historically tested or fallen beneath.
His July outlook forecasted a fourth-quarter trough—most likely arriving in October—drawing parallels to midterm-year trends from 2014, 2018, and 2022. Certain projections even weighed the potential for a drop to $44,000.
Even after Bitcoin moved back into the mid-$70,000 range, Cowen argued that declaring the bear market finished was premature. He pointed to historical retracements following golden crosses and cautioned that a reduced peak, comparable to 2014 and 2015, remained a possibility.
During a September 20 update, he admitted that the upward price movement had persisted longer than anticipated. Macroeconomic pressures he expected—such as strengthening yields, higher energy costs, and a stronger U.S. dollar—failed to materialize in the way he predicted.
What Does Bitcoin Above $85,000 Mean?
The market delivered a swift and definitive response. Bitcoin surging past $85,000 wiped out over $831 million in short positions within a single 24-hour period. Conversely, long liquidations reached roughly $130 million during that exact timeframe, based on figures from CoinGlass.
This disparity highlights just how aggressively traders had positioned themselves for a substantial price drop that ultimately failed to materialize. Market participants who adhered strictly to the bearish thesis faced immediate and severe financial consequences.
Cowen reacted with notable transparency, stating that he was incorrect, offering no excuses, and accepting the forthcoming community criticism. Fellow analyst Michaël van de Poppe described him as one of the few reliably honest bears, emphasizing that everyone eventually makes mistakes. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor kept his response brief with two words: welcome ₿ack..
This event offers a vital reminder for cryptocurrency investors. Cycle models serve as probabilistic frameworks instead of absolute guarantees, and market momentum can easily override well-reasoned historical comparisons.
With Bitcoin maintaining its position above $85,000, market focus now centers on whether this breakout will evolve into a sustained bull market. While lingering midterm risks might still emerge later, the actual price action has firmly rejected expectations of a deeper fourth-quarter low.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Benjamin Cowen admit he was wrong?
Benjamin Cowen admitted his bearish forecast failed after Bitcoin broke decisively above $85,000, causing a major short squeeze that invalidated his expectations of a deeper market bottom.
What were the main indicators Benjamin Cowen used in his analysis?
He relied heavily on cycle analysis—projecting trajectories from previous four-year market periods—while monitoring the realized price near $53,000 and drawing historical comparisons to midterm years like 2014, 2018, and 2022.
How much was liquidated when Bitcoin crossed $85,000?
According to CoinGlass data, the move liquidated more than $831 million in short positions and roughly $130 million in long positions within a 24-hour period.
How did other crypto figures react to Cowen’s admission?
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe praised Cowen’s honesty, noting that everyone eventually errs, while Michael Saylor responded simply with “welcome ₿ack.”
