China is well placed to lead the world in AI models by 2030, according to Bloomberg Intelligence (BI). Its chipmakers, by contrast, are expected to reach only competitive status by then.
Hong Kong’s main tech benchmark is moving closer to that split. The Hang Seng Tech Index will tilt toward AI and hardware names in December.
China’s AI Edge Runs on Low Prices
BI analysts led by Francis Chan point to cost as China’s strength. They say its skill at software optimization leaves it well placed for cheaper AI deployment.
US models may keep a narrow edge at the frontier. President Donald Trump has said the US leads China by about a year. BeInCrypto reported this month that BI put that edge at 3% on benchmarks.
Leading on AI has not yet meant earning from it. China’s AI firms, like peers elsewhere, are still working out how to make money from their innovations.
The analysts see a price war among them keeping profits out of reach until companies price more rationally. Still, BI sees an opening in Hong Kong’s stock market. The Hang Seng Tech Index has lagged the global AI trade.
BI expects the index’s overhaul to help it capture value from other parts of China’s high-tech sector. So far, two Chinese AI model developers sit in Hong Kong’s index. Zhipu and MiniMax joined in June with initial weights of 0.53% and 0.36%.
“The changes could materially improve the index’s growth profile and broaden exposure toward advanced hardware, AI and robotics,” BI noted.
The December overhaul expands the index from 30 to 50 members. 40 will be picked by market value and 10 by sales growth over the past year.
Hang Seng Indexes will name the new members on November 20, and the changes take effect on December 7.
China’s Chip Gap Runs Through Two Capitals
China’s chipmakers face a longer climb. BI says China will likely close the gap in chip technology by 2030, though without becoming fully self-sufficient.
Imported chips can fill part of that shortfall, but two governments decide how many arrive.
Washington has cleared Nvidia’s H200 chips for sale to China, and Trump said the US government would keep 25% of the revenue.
Anthropic has pushed for the opposite approach. It urged tighter export controls to lock in a 12- to 24-month US lead by 2028.
Beijing has kept that door narrow. It first restricted purchases, then let selected AI firms buy limited quantities from July. Those sales made up less than 1% of Nvidia’s data-center revenue in the quarter that ended in July.
BI sees trade restrictions as an obstacle for China’s tech firms more broadly. Still, it expects them to scatter the country’s industrial expansion across more countries rather than stop it.
Beyond AI, the report expects China to lead 8 of 17 strategic technologies by 2030, from energy storage to biopharma manufacturing. It also says that lead won’t rescue China’s economy from a slowdown.
Bloomberg Economics projects average growth of 3.6% over the coming decade, compared with 5.2% across the past three years.
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