Copper futures touched a record $6.95 a pound intraday on September 22 and closed at a record $6.92. The gain arrived a day after Michael Burry named a copper miner as his indirect artificial intelligence (AI) bet.
The rally has accelerated since mid-September as Chinese buyers stocked up ahead of the holidays.
Copper Leaves Gold and Silver Behind in 2026
Copper has gained nearly 20% so far in 2026 and more than 46% over the past year. By comparison, gold is up 0.02% year-to-date, while silver has fallen 8.5%.
Over the past year, however, silver has risen 49.2% and gold 15.47%. Earlier this month, copper slid almost 8% after reports that a White House tariff plan had stalled. However, the metal has not regained strength as the world struggles with shortages.
Copper cathode inventories in Shanghai fell to 43,900 tonnes, the lowest since 2023. Bloomberg reported the figure from weekly Shanghai Metals Market data released Monday.
In London, cancelled warrants, metal booked to leave London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses, rose to 122,150 tonnes on Tuesday. That equals 48% of metal on warrant, leaving 133,725 tonnes available, according to MINING.COM data.
Burry’s Copper Bet Rests on an 18-Year Mine Gap
The tightening supply picture ties into the case that Burry made a day before the record. In a September 21 Substack post, he explained why he is largely ignoring the AI stock rally.
“The house party is packed, pushing AI higher today, but I am largely ignoring the woo-hoos…I think of copper, and how it gets prettier as it ages,” he wrote.
His answer to that crowded trade is Ero Copper, a Brazil-focused copper-and-gold producer. Burry backed the pick with data from Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok.
Major copper discoveries, with deposits containing at least 500,000 tonnes, have fallen from double digits a year to one or two, with none in 2025.
That shortage of discoveries matters because mines take so long to build. Slok noted that new deposits need roughly 18 years to reach production, while data centers add copper demand within two to three years.
S&P Global’s longer-range outlook points in the same direction. The firm expects demand to climb 50% to 42 million tonnes by 2040. Without significant adjustments, it projects a 10-million-tonne shortfall by then.
However, the near-term outlook is less settled. CRU had projected a 639,000-tonne global surplus for 2026, though it saw the market as balanced at best in August. Burry also acknowledged that part of the rally reflects a temporary lull in supply.
Traders are now still waiting on the White House tariff decision, which will shape whether US stockpiles reach buyers elsewhere.
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