A hotter-than-expected US inflation report knocked Bitcoin (BTC) down 3.3% in 24 hours to $80,979. The drop pushed the price under what US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) paid, on average, for their coins.
Whales had spent the weeks before the report building their balances to levels not seen in nearly a year. With prices now under pressure, will they keep the coins they added or start handing them back?
Hot Inflation Pushes Bitcoin Under the ETF Cost Basis
Annual US inflation climbed to 3.7% in September, beating the 3.6% forecast. Core inflation rose to 2.6% against an expected 2.5%.
Bitcoin dipped within minutes of the release and kept sliding. Leveraged traders took heavy losses too, with crypto liquidations nearing $1 billion in the 24 hours to early Thursday. Long positions accounted for 91.6% of the total.
The drop took Bitcoin below the average price US spot ETFs paid for their coins, near $81,500 per Glassnode. Those funds recorded $261.5 million in net outflows the same day, SoSoValue data shows.
Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Ran Ahead of the Print
Whales had made their move before the print, CryptoQuant data shows. They shifted from distribution to accumulation over the preceding weeks. Their holdings outside exchanges and mining pools reached 3.03 million BTC, the highest since November 2025.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju described the shift in an October 13 report.
“The question is who is buying. Whales have switched from selling to accumulating… That is how early bull markets start, with retail still absent,” he said.
Market-wide demand had also turned positive. Analyst Darkfost estimated 30-day spot and futures demand at 69,000 BTC.
Glassnode, however, sees little fresh demand behind the price, citing ETF selling and overhead supply. Buyers from the past two years hold cost bases between about $88,000 and $100,000, and those levels have turned price back twice this year.
Social Chatter Soured While Analysts Grew Bullish
The crowd had turned fearful even before the CPI report. Santiment counted 0.82 bullish Bitcoin comments for every bearish one across X, Reddit and Telegram on October 13.
It tied the mood to repeated rejection near $87,000, a drop toward $81,000, and heavy long liquidations. Analysts tracked by CryptoQuant read the same market differently.
CryptoQuant’s consensus index stood at +49.2 on October 14, with 84% of 164 analysts voting on Bitcoin bullish. The index had been below zero until late July.
Bids Stack Up at $80,000
Whether the crowd or the analysts prove right will show first in how Bitcoin trades around its nearest levels. Below the ETF cost basis, Glassnode points to $80,000, where the largest bid block on Binance’s spot order book sits. CryptoQuant places Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average near the same mark.
A break lower could force selling from leveraged longs clustered just under $80,000, Glassnode said. The True Market Mean, the average price active investors paid for their coins, would then come into view near $78,000.
On the upside, $88,000 marks both the cost basis of six-to-12-month buyers and a short liquidation cluster. Glassnode said a daily close above $88,000, alongside renewed ETF inflows, would signal buyers soaking up that supply.
Until Bitcoin breaks one of those levels, whether whales keep the coins they added stays an open question.
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