Voters on each side fear what the other party would do with Congress, a CNBC survey shows. For investors, the question is how a Democratic majority could reshape oil, AI, and policy risk.
Polymarket gives Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House and 65% for the Senate. A recent World Gold Council note maps four policy areas a Democratic Congress could influence, each with implications for gold, Bitcoin, and stocks.
Does Gridlock on Spending Help or Hurt Gold?
Spending is the first area. According to the WGC, a Democratic Congress could limit the White House’s ability to pass deficit-expanding bills. Edward Jones similarly expects gridlock to make large new fiscal initiatives less likely.
- Gold could feel mixed effects. Smaller deficits could ease fiscal concerns and revive demand for Treasuries and the dollar, weighing on gold. However, pressure to reduce tariffs could cut government revenue and widen the deficit, potentially supporting the metal.
- Stocks: Lower Treasury yields could support equities by reducing borrowing costs and increasing the present value of future earnings. Edward Jones data also shows the S&P 500 has generally risen after midterm elections since 1970, regardless of which party won.
- Bitcoin (BTC) tends to move opposite the dollar, and Glassnode data shows that inverse correlation at its most negative it has recorded. A firmer dollar from smaller deficits would therefore weigh on BTC. However, that link has weakened at times.
Could Congress Cool the Iran Trade?
The second area, war funding, ties the vote directly to oil. In the CNBC survey, 21% of Democrats worry a Republican Congress would continue military efforts in Iran. By contrast, 11% of Republicans worry Democrats would end them.
Trump recently ruled out imminent military action against Iran. The council argues a Democratic Congress could restrict war funding and push toward de-escalation.
For now, oil points the other way. Brent crude trades near $114, and higher energy costs have lifted inflation worries. Traders see about an 80% chance of a December Fed hike.
- Gold would benefit from de-escalation, the council says, as cheaper oil eases inflation expectations, yields, and the dollar. The metal fell below $4,000 on Friday, its lowest since mid-July, and traded at $4,010.48 on Monday.
- Stocks would gain if cheaper oil softens yields and inflation fears.
- Bitcoin has swung on Iran headlines this month, with escalation news cutting it 2% to 5% intraday. A deal that weakens the dollar could help. BTC now trades at $79,894, down 1.2% in 24 hours.
Would AI Rules Hit Tech Stocks First?
AI policy is the third area. According to the council, a Democratic Congress could scale back federal support for AI or tighten its regulation.
In the CNBC survey, 19% of Democrats fear a Republican Congress would fail to regulate AI and data centers. Among Republicans, 6% fear Democrats would overregulate them.
- Gold could gain from that slowdown as softer growth, lower yields, and a weaker dollar support it.
- Stocks, especially tech, would take the most direct hit, the council suggests. Investors already doubt whether hyperscaler spending will pay off. Weaker tech shares could then dent household wealth and consumer spending.
- Bitcoin faces a split effect. A weaker dollar would help, but a tech sell-off could drag BTC lower alongside equities.
What Happens if the White House Governs by Order?
The final area is executive power, which voters already worry about. In the CNBC survey, 44% of all voters fear Trump operating beyond his constitutional power, including 74% of Democrats. Among Republicans, 16% fear a Democratic Congress would impeach him.
The council expects blocked legislation to push the administration toward more executive orders and emergency powers. The court fights, and policy swings that follow could raise political risk premiums.
- Gold usually benefits from that uncertainty, according to the council. It also expects the shift to strengthen central banks’ interest in diversifying reserves into gold.
- Stocks could struggle as policy becomes less predictable, which tends to weigh on valuations.
- Bitcoin carries its own executive-power risk. Much of today’s crypto rulebook comes from the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than Congress. A future commission can withdraw those rules.
By the council’s read, three of the four areas lean supportive of gold. For Bitcoin, the dollar is the common thread, while stocks hinge mostly on yields. Polymarket still gives Republicans an 8% chance of holding the House and 36% for the Senate.
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