Brent crude fell about 4.6% on Monday after a report that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for $8 billion in frozen funds. Bitcoin (BTC) did not join the relief, sliding to about $73,600.
A deal would cut US fuel costs and could cool the inflation pushing the Federal Reserve toward a December rate hike. However, top US officials oppose it, and Iran’s nuclear program is off the table.
What Would the $8 Billion US-Iran Hormuz Deal Change?
Washington would lift its naval blockade and unfreeze Iranian funds held in Qatar. Iran would halt attacks on Gulf shipping, Israel Hayom reported, citing two unnamed diplomatic sources.
Iran has also reportedly dropped its demand to control the strait and charge ships transit fees.
Vice President JD Vance is pushing the deal. President Donald Trump agreed to speed up talks partly after Republicans lost the midterms, the report said.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly object. One official warned the deal would rescue Tehran’s leadership at the last minute.
Trump was set to discuss the offer with Qatar’s prime minister in Washington on Monday.
Why Didn’t Bitcoin Rally with Cheaper Oil?
Bitcoin traded at $74,437 as of this writing, about 8% below its November 5 peak near $81,000. Brent sat at $93.81, down from Friday’s $98.32 settlement.
Rates are the link. CME FedWatch put the odds of a December quarter-point Fed hike at 76.8% on November 6.
Fuel feeds those odds. Gasoline drove more than half of September’s US price rise, Labor Department data showed. AAA put the national average at $4.10 a gallon on Nov. 5.
Cheaper oil has helped before. On November 4, Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 as oil slid about 12%.
Yet on November 2, peace-talk reports lifted gold and silver prices while Bitcoin lagged.
What Could Still Sink the Hormuz Deal?
A similar deal struck in Switzerland in May collapsed after an Iranian tanker attack, Israel Hayom noted.
Analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta wrote that a breakthrough could send oil toward pre-war levels. Limited US strikes, by contrast, could spark a brief rally.
Tuesday’s October inflation report lands first, testing whether oil’s drop reaches rate bets and the Bitcoin price outlook.
