Bitcoin has recovered to around $82,500 after briefly falling below $80,000 last week.
But the rebound faces a major test on Wednesday, when fresh US oil inventory data could revive the inflation fears that triggered the selloff.
Macro Conditions Heavily Impact the Market
Bitcoin fell to $79,770 on Thursday as investors reacted to another troubling US inflation report. September consumer prices rose 3.7% annually, exceeding the expected 3.6%.
Stronger producer-price and retail-sales figures added to concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again.The pressure spread across financial markets.
Technology stocks suffered heavy losses, while investors reduced exposure to riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
By Monday, however, conditions had improved.Oil prices and US Treasury yields declined, easing some inflation concerns.
Traders also reduced expectations of an immediate Fed rate hike, with markets now pricing in roughly an 87% probability that rates will remain unchanged on October 28.Still, the recovery has a weakness.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately “$228 million in net outflows” last week. Institutional demand has yet to show a convincing turnaround.
Oil Could Decide Bitcoin’s Next Move
According to Bitunix analysts, Wednesday’s US Energy Information Administration crude oil inventory release is a major upcoming catalyst.
A larger-than-expected decline in oil inventories could push energy prices higher, strengthening inflation fears and increasing pressure on Bitcoin.
Conversely, an unexpected inventory increase could weigh on oil prices and ease concerns about further monetary tightening.
For Bitcoin, $80,000 remains the immediate support level. A sustained break below it could trigger another test of last week’s lows.
A recovery above $84,000–$85,000, particularly alongside stronger ETF inflows, would offer more convincing evidence of renewed buying demand.
Why Some Altcoins Are Defying the Crypto Selloff
The weakness extends beyond Bitcoin. Only 40% of the 300 cryptocurrencies tracked by Bitunix gained last week, with a median return of −2.03%.Yet some smaller tokens moved sharply higher.
Basic Attention Token (BAT) surged 99.43%, supported by interest in its expanding Brave browser ecosystem, which reported 128 million monthly users and more than 200,000 Brave Rewards Card registrations.
Speculative trading may have amplified the rally. BAT futures open interest jumped 60% in a single day, while funding rates remained negative, suggesting conditions that could fuel short squeezes.
Meanwhile, Ethereum scaling tokens ZK and STRK gained more than 40% each, reflecting selective interest in zero-knowledge technology.
These gains do not necessarily indicate broader market recovery or increased adoption.
Key Events That Could Move Bitcoin Before November
- October 21: “US crude oil inventory report”
- October 23: US business activity data and consumer sentiment figures.
- October 27–28: “Federal Reserve policy meeting”
- October 29: “US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation”
Bitcoin’s recovery has given buyers room to defend $80,000. Whether that support survives the week will depend on how inflation expectations develop and whether stronger demand returns.
