Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin (BTC) correlation with the S&P 500 rose last week as other assets followed. A basket of stocks excluding artificial intelligence (AI) names went from 10% to 40% correlated during the week.
Diversifiers are meant to move apart from stocks, so a rising correlation erodes that role for Bitcoin holders. Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, posted the 50-day chart on X with data through Nov. 8.
What Drove Bitcoin Correlation Higher Last Week?
The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on Thursday, Nov. 5, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.4%. It linked the slide to bets that Democrats, who swept Congress, would regulate AI more tightly.
Timmer described the pattern on X.
“When markets fall hard and fast enough, correlations often converge, and we can see below that this happened last week as well.
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, Fidelity Management & Research Company, on X
Likewise, the equal-weight S&P 500, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Bitcoin converged, the post said. Correlation measures how closely two assets move together, with 100% meaning perfect step.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell 5.4% that Thursday, steeper than the S&P 500, as Wall Street’s fear gauge jumped nearly 70%.
Which Diversifiers Still Hold Up After the Rout?
The chart plots nearly 20 assets against the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries, using Bloomberg and Haver Analytics data. Fidelity’s December outlook listed Bitcoin, gold and commodities among Timmer’s diversifiers.
However, the dollar and the Bloomberg Commodity Index still sit at or below zero correlation to the S&P 500. Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), which follow price trends, show the same pattern.
In contrast, Bitcoin traded like gold rather than the Nasdaq in August. Grayscale research put its 90-day Nasdaq 100 correlation at roughly 33%, down from over 60%.
The episode shows a chip-led selloff can reach assets with little direct AI exposure, including Bitcoin and REITs.
