XRP (XRP) continues to display three bullish indicators concerning its holders, derivatives market, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) metrics, even as the digital asset surrendered some of its September gains on Thursday.
According to BeInCrypto Markets data, the token changed hands at approximately $1.50 at the time of publication, marking a 24-hour decline of roughly 6.3%. Despite this downward adjustment, XRP maintains a weekly gain exceeding 15.6%, which aligns with a broader market recovery.
Year-Long XRP Holders Are Still Underwater
The initial bullish indicator stems from wallet addresses that have maintained XRP positions over the past year. Data from Santiment indicates that the altcoin’s 365-day market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio hovers near -11.75%. A negative MVRV metric signifies that the typical wallet active throughout that timeframe is experiencing an unrealized loss.
By comparison, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Chainlink (LINK) metrics hover slightly above 0%, whereas Dogecoin (DOGE) reflects a deeper negative reading at -19.26%.
Santiment notes that a low MVRV ratio typically restricts downward price potential because a smaller pool of investors holds profits available to cash out. XRP investors remained in negative territory following the recovery observed last week.
“Buying during that pain has historically offered better long-term setups,” the post read.
Futures Traders Return in Numbers Last Seen in January
While long-term participants contend with losses, derivatives traders have begun increasing their exposure once more. Binance open interest (OI) for XRP futures has climbed close to $600 million, reaching levels last observed in January.
Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, highlighted this surge. Open interest measures the total financial value of unsettled futures contracts.
Furthermore, OI has decisively surpassed its 180-day moving average of approximately $445 million. Darkfost interpreted this movement as a resurgence in speculative interest following months of subdued engagement. He added that positive funding rates imply buyers are spearheading this accumulation.
“This return of positive sentiment on XRP’s derivatives markets is therefore an encouraging signal for the current momentum. That said, it’s worth keeping in mind that OI remains dangerous in case of excess. That’s not the case today,” the analyst added.
XRP ETF Buyers Keep Showing Up Every Week
Finally, interest surrounding XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has remained consistent. Figures from SoSoValue demonstrate that these funds have registered net weekly inflows continuously since mid-July, establishing an 11-week consecutive streak that includes the current week ending September 23.
Conversely, Bitcoin and Ethereum investment vehicles failed to maintain identical consistency. Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows across three separate weeks—notably losing $462.7 million during the week ending September 11. Meanwhile, Ethereum-based funds dropped $140 million during the week concluding on September 18.
Nevertheless, XRP inflows are relatively modest in comparison. The majority of weeks generated between $1 million and $20 million, though the week ending August 28 pulled in $110.5 million. Total cumulative net inflows have now advanced to $1.75 billion.
2 Signals Keep the Bulls in Check
However, not all indicators of United States demand match the trajectory of the ETFs. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain pointed out that XRP’s price premium on Coinbase over Binance has contracted to approximately 0.0055%, a metric traders frequently utilize to monitor American spot purchasing activity.
A sustained premium would signify intensified demand on Coinbase, yet the present margin displays no such confirmation.
Additionally, the calendar presents a secondary warning as October approaches in a week. Statistics compiled by CryptoRank reveal that XRP has finished the month of October in the red during 8 out of 13 years, generating an average monthly decline of -5.14%. The asset also dropped 11.9% during October of last year.
Consequently, XRP enters a historically sluggish month backed by three bullish indicators. Whether buyers on the Coinbase spot market align with ETF investors may dictate how much of this current resilience endures.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the 3 bullish signals currently associated with XRP?
The three bullish signals are: negative 365-day MVRV ratios indicating long-term holders are underwater (which typically limits downside selling pressure), a rebound in futures open interest to January levels near $600 million, and an 11-week consecutive streak of positive net inflows into XRP spot ETFs.
How do XRP’s ETF inflows compare to Bitcoin and Ethereum funds?
While XRP spot ETFs have maintained a steady 11-week streak of net weekly inflows since mid-July, Bitcoin and Ethereum funds have experienced intermittent outflows during the same period, though XRP’s overall weekly dollar inflows are generally smaller.
What historical data concerns analysts about October?
Data from CryptoRank shows that XRP has historically closed the month of October lower in 8 out of 13 years, averaging a -5.14% monthly return and dropping 11.9% in October of the previous year.
What does a negative 365-day MVRV ratio mean for XRP holders?
A negative 365-day MVRV ratio means that the average wallet active over the past year is currently holding an unrealized loss, which analysts suggest reduces sell pressure since fewer holders are sitting on profits.
