TRON founder Justin Sun has become more bearish on Bitcoin, citing AI and quantum computing risks. He says investors holding Bitcoin through ETFs have not fully priced in these threats.
The debate centers on whether Bitcoin’s cryptography can withstand faster-moving quantum research and advancing AI methods.
Why Bitcoin’s Cryptography Faces New Pressure
In an interview with William Joy, Justin Sun raised a striking point.
He argued that advances in AI mathematics could let classical computers break existing cryptography before a full quantum breakthrough arrives.
“If you ask about my personal view, I am currently slightly more bearish. The reason is straightforward: the algorithm evolution of AI and the issue of QD (quantum computing). I believe it will be difficult for BTC to walk away unscathed from this,” Sun said.
No current machine is close to that capability, but research timelines have shortened. In March 2026, Google Quantum AI estimated fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could break Bitcoin’s cryptography. That is roughly a 20-fold reduction from earlier figures.
Google has since reported further progress. On October 15, researchers demonstrated magic state cultivation on its Willow chip, cutting errors about 40-fold. The work, published in Science, reached 99.99% fidelity.
While Willow has only 105 qubits, the result could help shrink the machines needed for cryptographic attacks. The milestone matters because it addresses a major bottleneck in quantum computing.
Could Quantum Progress Break Bitcoin’s Security?
A large share of Bitcoin is exposed. Glassnode’s co-founder indicates that 6.04 million BTC, roughly 31.2% of the mined supply, sit in addresses with publicly visible keys.
Some analyses put the figure as high as 6.9 million BTC. Those visible keys are what make these coins vulnerable in theory.
“Once QD or AI decryption arrives, these dormant assets will be breached, and in the worst case, the market could see massive selling pressure of more than 2 million BTC. Given BTC’s extremely high degree of decentralization, it is extremely difficult for the community and miners to reach consensus to freeze, confiscate, or restrict circulation through a hard fork,” Sun noted.
Coinbase, which custodies a large share of the supply, published technical considerations on October 13. It urged the community to start preparing well before any cryptographically relevant quantum computer arrives.
Consensus changes and ecosystem migrations can take years. Options such as flexible output types and staged hybrid protection matter now.
Sun’s latest remarks add to institutional and developer debates about whether markets are discounting long-term cryptographic risks. Bitcoin, meanwhile, still trades mainly on other factors.
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