Elon Musk’s ambitious goal of operating a reusable space transportation system has just passed its most significant trial. Will this achievement propel SpaceX stock skyward — toward the moon or Mars?
Completing its most crucial flight to date, Starship successfully reached orbit and made an intact return, splashing down in the Pacific Ocean on Monday.
For investors, this mission hit the core of the bullish thesis for SpaceX: if Starship achieves regular reusability, the company can dramatically reduce the expenses associated with launching cargo and satellites.
That potential has fueled massive valuations. Cathie Wood, as an illustration, has suggested that a valuation of $1.75 trillion for SpaceX could appear inexpensive if Starship operates successfully at scale.
Despite this, the stock experienced a decline.
Why SpaceX Stock Dropped After Starship’s Success
Just minutes prior to SpaceX confirming the successful splashdown, shares were trading down 0.93% at approximately $147.29 around noon ET.
Operationally, the mission was a success. Starship climbed to an altitude of roughly 170 miles above Earth, successfully deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, endured the harsh conditions of reentry, and executed an upright flip before touching down in the ocean.
Instead of operational failure, the downward pressure appears rooted in market dynamics.
Following the expiration of SpaceX’s post-IPO lockup period on September 24, roughly 328 million shares became eligible for trading, which may have introduced new selling pressure. Additionally, President Gwynne Shotwell recently offloaded $52.5 million worth of shares via a pre-arranged trading plan.
To put it simply, Starship provided positive developments into a market already absorbing a significantly higher volume of available shares.
What’s Next for SpaceX Stock?
At present, market participants are keeping a close eye on the $150 price level.
Data from OptionCharts shows that approximately 22,700 call contracts are currently open at that strike price for the Friday expiration, while puts are largely clustered around $140.
Analyst opinions remain split. MoffettNathanson maintains a Neutral rating paired with a $142 price target, whereas the broader analyst consensus target sits at $222.42.
While Starship has successfully eliminated a major technical uncertainty, the upcoming battle centers on whether SpaceX’s present valuation already accounts for this achievement.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did SpaceX stock drop after the successful Starship launch?
Despite the successful mission, the stock fell due to market supply pressures. Around 328 million shares became tradable after the post-IPO lockup expired on September 24, and President Gwynne Shotwell sold $52.5 million in shares under a pre-arranged trading plan.
How high did Starship fly during this mission?
Starship reached an altitude of approximately 170 miles above Earth during the flight.
How many satellites did Starship deploy?
The spacecraft successfully deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites.
What are analysts predicting for SpaceX stock?
Analysts are currently divided. MoffettNathanson holds a Neutral rating with a $142 price target, while the overall average analyst target is $222.42.
What is the significance of the post-IPO lockup expiration?
The lockup expiration on September 24 freed up approximately 328 million shares to enter the public market, which potentially added fresh selling pressure to the stock.
